看国外 | 非洲猪瘟将继续威胁全球猪肉市场

看国外 2019-08-02 13:07:44

According to Rabobank, African swine fever (ASF) continues to threaten the global pork market, not only by causing a production drop in Asian countries, but also adding uncertainty to trade and production prospects in other parts of the world.

据荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)称,非洲猪瘟(ASF)继续威胁着全球猪肉市场,不仅导致亚洲国家产量下降,还给世界其他地区的贸易和生产前景增添了不确定性。

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While China’s pork prices have started to move higher, production responses in the rest of the world appear cautious. Other factors, including disease management and weather, are hindering production in Europe and Brazil. The resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations is a positive development, implying a chance for China to review tariffs on US pork imports.

尽管中国猪肉价格已开始走高,但世界其它地区的生产反应似乎较为谨慎。包括疾病管理和天气在内的其他因素也在阻碍欧洲和巴西的生产。中美贸易谈判的重启是一个积极的进展,意味着中国有机会重新审视对进口美国猪肉的关税。

China: Pig herd losses growing

中国:养猪业损失不断增加

ASF continues to spread in China, with new cases mainly reported in South China. Live hog prices are finally moving higher, indicating tight supply. While fresh meat prices are moving, large inventories of frozen meat continue to pressure prices and weigh on market returns.

非洲猪瘟继续在中国传播着,主要在华南地区报告了新的病例。生猪价格最终走高,表明供应吃紧。虽然鲜肉价格在上涨,但大量冻肉库存继续对价格构成压力,并对市场回报构成压力。

US: Continued production growth in 2H 2019

美国:2019下半年猪肉生产继续增长

Pork production in 2H is expected to rise, driven by a large breeding herd and improvement in productivity. While pork exports are struggling, the resolution of trade terms with Mexico and Canada should boost exports, and the resumption of trade negotiations with China is a positive. The labor shortage remains a key constraint in 2H 2019.

由于生猪养殖规模大、生产能力提高,预计下半年生猪产量将有所提高。在猪肉出口陷入困境之际,与墨西哥和加拿大达成的贸易条款应会提振出口,而与中国重启贸易谈判是一件积极的事情。劳动力短缺仍然是2019年下半年的一个关键制约因素。

Europe: Production not yet responding to price

欧洲:产量尚未对价格作出回应

ASF in eastern Europe remains pressing, discouraging expansion. Summer heat is slowing production growth, contributing to better market prices. Exports have increased from most member states, mainly driven by stronger demand from China.

非洲猪瘟在东欧的扩张仍然十分紧迫,令人沮丧。夏季高温正在减缓生产增长,有助于提高市场价格。大多数成员国的出口都有所增长,主要是受中国需求走强的推动。

Brazil: Exports move to new highs

巴西:出口再创新高

Exports are increasing, driven by Chinese and Russian demand, although pig producers remain skeptical about whether this represents a structural return to growth. Domestic pork prices are rising, as exports are outpacing production growth. If internal consumption picks up in 2H 2019, this will provide further support for prices.

在中国和俄罗斯需求的推动下,巴西猪肉出口正在增加,不过养猪户仍对这是否代表经济增长的结构性回归持怀疑态度。由于出口增速超过生产增速,巴西国内猪肉价格正在上涨。如果国内消费在2019年下半年回升,将支撑猪肉价格进一步上涨。

原文链接:

https://www.pig333.com/latest_swine_news/asf-continues-to-threaten-the-global-pork-market_15205/?utm_source=newsletters333&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Swine+News&xemail=aWRtPTg3NjEmaWR1PTgxMjY5JnQ9M2I2YmRiOTc0NzVlNGNjNTBiY2E0OWY3NDljMGVjNTA%3D

文章来源:Pig333

(文/爱猪网记者刘坤颖编译,爱猪网原创,转载请注明出处)


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